Scoring is ablaze these NHL playoffs. It reached its summit May 3 with a ridiculous 6.09 goals per game and it’s now at 5.85 goals heading into Game 1 of the Stanley Cup final.
If you compare it with recent postseasons, that number is ridiculous. Additionally, it is a storyline that’s been mostly overlooked by both the mainstream media and the betting community.
From the 10 seasons ahead, the greatest goals per game average in a playoffs was 5.98 (2010) and even that was an anomaly considering it was the first period under new rule adjustments to crack down using a force on obstruction. The NHL called it tighter to open up play and the OVER crushed that year at 45-30-14.
So I have ta hand it into oddsmakers because although scoring is way up this year, they have managed to book totals admirably. The O/U stands at 32-36-11 heading to Game 1 between the Washington Capitals and Vegas Golden Knights. That’s actually a profit of $200.25 if you put $100 on each UNDER. Just how should we be betting totals from the NHL closing?
I think we will see some value . The biggest reason is goaltending and that is always the first thing you have to check at when you are betting totals in the NHL. If a team’s goalie is not playing well, pucks are going to find the back of the net — it is just a matter of how many.
When a group’s goaltender is sexy, however he can always steal an UNDER victory for you by yourself.
Goaltenders:
Marc-Andre Fleury has propelled the Golden Knights to the final and that’s clear with him sitting as the -120 favored to win the Conn Smythe. Should you need more than this, Fleury owns a 1.68 goals-against average and a .947 save percentage.
That second number rankings best for a single postseason of any goalie who’s played at least eight games. As in No. 1 all time based on quanthockey.com. He is putting on a playoff performance for the ages and you can run out of superlatives to describe it.
Braden Holtby is a bit of a different story for Washington. He has been up-and-down these playoffs with a few softies squeezing through. He has had six games this postseason where his save percentage dropped below .900, which is somewhat scary.
The good news for Caps and UNDER bettors, however, is it seems he has saved his best for last. Holtby enters the final off back-to-back shutouts from a powerful Tampa Bay squad using a joint 53 saves.
A big reason is that Washington played much better team defense in front of him in those games. The Capitals had 36 blocked shots compared with the Bolts’ 21 as well as to methey performed their best defensively of the postseason at the ends of the ice.
Holtby is a much better goaltender once the Capitals are playing like that. He’s not always the kind of keeper who’s going to steal goals off great scoring opportunities again and again like Fleury. But he will stop only about all the shots he should when his team is playing well in front of him.
The prior fourth-round pick has quietly made the third-best goals-against typical in playoff history (2.01) among goaltenders with at least 50 games.
Scoring at the Stanley Cup Final:
Scoring typically goes down in the NHL final. The group that could play better defense and possesses the hotter goaltender generally wins the Cup.
