This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card at Sweden. It was a 13-fight card, but we only had Oezdemir/Latifi fall off, so be sure they aren’t on your lineups. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to acquire a great deal of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. I will attempt to receive my 3rd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k decoration, and then I am going to take a couple shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good quantity of drama into money games.
With that said, let’s get into a few plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Alexander Gustafsson — $9,300
Gus is my confident pick of the card this week and he’s also the biggest betting favorite on the card. I believe we could pile this principal event in cash games and use both Gus and Anthony Smith, but I am not positive if I’ll do that or not. I will for sure have Gustafsson in my money lineup however and he’s who I will be starting that lineup with. With 5-rounds to use I think he’s the highest ceiling on the card and that I think he gets a finish inside this fight. Perhaps with numerous takedowns. He’ll be exceedingly popular in GPPs so in the event that you want to get away from him I believe the tournaments are the spots for that. I’ll be locking him into my money lineup though personally.
GPP drama of this week — Tonya Evinger — $8,600
On DraftKings, I enjoy Evinger in her fight and that I have zero interest in Lansberg. Evinger’s best path to victory is penalizing Lansberg on the floor and that scores highly if she can do that. I also believe she could get a finish. I believe she’s in play in all formats and I do think she’s 100+ upside down here and that’s the reason she’s my GPP drama of this week. There aren’t many UFC matchups I’d say that for with Evinger at this point in her career, but this one looks perfect for her. I think she dominates this battle and ends it with ground in pound in around 2 or 1. If that is the case, she must score well and possibly win somebody $25k.
Underdog play of the week — Devin Clark — $7,500
I’m pressured to play with Devin Clark this week since he’s just $7.5k however he’s the current betting favorite. I love that type of value on DraftKings and that’s what is forcing me to roster him. We must include”underdogs” within our DK lineups and when we could really get a favorite, or even a roster with 6 favorites, then that helps our odds of hitting all 6 fights and hopefully taking down a GPP. Clark should be hot this week as well because of this value so I think he’s in play for a cash game block and if you want, but in GPPs you will need to have him more than 33% of your lineups to get any leverage on him over the field.
Fade of this week — Duda Santana $8,600
Duda Santana is an easy fade for me . She is $8.6k but she’s the underdog on the gambling line. She’s also +365 to win ITD. If I’m paying that cost on DK I need higher finishing upside or someone who’ll be heading for a lot of takedowns. I really don’t see her having a lot of a ceiling in this fight even if she does win so that I do not see her being on the $25k lineup. That’s why I will be complete fading Santana this week. If I had been making 150 lineups then I would include her in the combination, but I’d need 50 lineups until I even contemplated using her.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 79-48 for +256.49u (+$25,649) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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